The Weekly's Top 12 Rankings
Friday, November 30, 2007
1. West Virginia (11-1)
2. Missouri (11-1)
3. LSU (10-2)
4. Hawaii (11-0)
5. Ohio State (11-1)
6. Kansas (11-1)
7. Georgia (10-2)
8. USC (9-2)
9. Boston College (10-2)
10. Florida (9-3)
11. Virginia Tech (10-2)
12. Illinois (9-3)
Teams with horrific losses, (Oklahoma's losses to Colorado and Texas Tech, Tennessee's 3 blowout losses, Oregon to UCLA and Arizona) will get you left out.
Teams with bad losses, (USC at home to Stanford, Virginia Tech's bomb against LSU, Illinois' to Iowa, Boston College's to Maryland, Ohio State's at home vs. Illinois) will hurt your ranking.
Hard fought losses to tough teams hurt, (Missouri's at Oklahoma, West Virginia's at South Florida, LSU's two triple-OT losses, Kansas' and Illinois' to Missouri) but can make you better in the end.
Tough wins can keep you in the rankings (Florida's over Tennessee and Kentucky, LSU's over Virginia Tech, Florida and Auburn, USC's over Arizona State and Cal) despite a few losses.
And of course, undefeated teams who have the ability to score on any defense in the nation (Hawaii) get a little bit of the respect that they deserve in our rankings.
Volume III, Issue XI
Friday, November 23, 2007
In a season where... Notre Dame is 2-9, Kansas is 11-0, six different teams have been ranked #2 in the AP top 25, Louisiana-Monroe beat Alabama, Appalachian State beat Michigan (both on the road nonetheless), Florida's Tim Tebow, a quarterback, has scored more rushing touchdowns than former Heisman Trophy winning running backs Reggie Bush, Ron Dayne, Ricky Williams and Eddie George did in their Heisman seasons, and UConn is currently tied for first place in the Big East... it seems reasonable that it hasn't been a great year for prognosticators. No excuses, but it's been a roller coaster of a regular season and hopefully we can find our way during the Rivalry Weeks heading into bowl season. Last week's recap: Northwestern just missed a cover against Illinois, Louisville's harsh fall from being last year's Orange Bowl champion continues, somehow Minnesota kept it reasonably close with Wisconsin, and Michigan couldn't move the ball. Last week's lone win was on the back of one of the nation's hottest teams, the mighty Georgia Bulldogs. It's Rivalry Week I, one of the week's which make college football great, so we're excited. Winners on the way...
Friday, November 23, 2007
Boise State at Hawaii (-2.5), 9pm
This has been touted as the biggest game in WAC history and one of the more anticipated mid-major games in recent memory. The Broncos have rebounded nicely since their loss at Washington in September. They are sitting at 10-1 with a possible BCS spot if they can win this game, which was unthinkable after that September loss. Hawaii is a perfect 10-0, but lacking any type of signature win. Weekly favorite Colt Brennan will be back at the helm for the Rainbow Warriors. As Colt goes, Hawaii goes. If Colt plays a good game expect the Warriors to come out on top and move into a BCS game. This may not have the attraction of a Michigan-Ohio State, Oklahoma-Texas or USC-UCLA game, but this is a must watch game for any football fan. Two of college football's top three scoring squads going for a possible BCS bid. Look for lots of points from both teams, but Colt Brennan is going to steal the show on the biggest stage of the year.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Missouri (+1.5) vs. Kansas, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri, 8pm
The game known as the Border War began as a true border war in 1863 when a band of Missourians burnt down Lawrence, Kansas (the home of the University of Kansas) killing 183 people in the process. The Border War has since turned into a pretty meaningless football game. Neither school has a national championship to its name, neither has won a Big XII (Big Eight at the time) title or played in a January bowl game since the late 60's, and have a combined six 10+ win seasons. Most of the time these teams are finishing up their season just trying to inflict some more pain to the other. We're going with the Tigers in this spot. Chase Daniel is the best player on either team and helps lead a Missouri offense that boasts more balance than their Kansas counterparts. Daniel will make his claim for serious Heisman consideration after beating the Jayhawks at Arrowhead.
Florida State at Florida (-14) , 5pm
The Gators are out of the SEC championship picture as well as the major bowl picture. It seems pretty obvious that they are really trying to get Tim Tebow the Heisman Trophy. He is an offensive machine. He has scored 46 touchdowns, rushing for 20 of them, while amassing 2,870 yards passing and another 749 on the ground. He is the leading candidate right now (in our opinion, of course) and coach Urban Meyer won't be afraid to try to pad those stats this week against the Seminoles, a game where so much is on the line for both programs, even in down years. This game is used as a recruiting tool all off-season and into next year's class. The Gators have won three in a row against their cross state rivals and look for them to continue that trend in the friendly confines of The Swamp.
Cincinnati (-21) at Syracuse, 7:15pm
We're just riding the "Take Whoever Is Playing Against Syracuse" train here. The Orange are really bad. Cincinnati has taken care of business against every team that they were supposed to take care of this season. Look for the Bearcats to come out flying high, scoring early and often. Syracuse has packed it in for this season, they're just excited that it's almost March and college hoops is almost here.
Hope you all had a happy Thanksgiving.
Many Hundos.
Volume III, Issue X
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Don't say that you weren't warned. We hope you got on the train last week because if you didn't, you missed it. The train has left the station and we're on the express line to the bowl season. Last week's 4-1 sets us up nicely to make a big run. Virginia Tech's offense once again spoiled an under for us, but Kansas continued their perfect season, USC kept their BCS hopes alive, South Florida embarassed Syracuse, and in the best pick of the week, Illinois beat Ohio State outright en route to a 4-1 week.
As always... the picks for week number twelve of your 2007 college football season.
Northwestern (+13.5) at Illinois, noon
The Illini did it for us on the road last week, but this has letdown written all over it. Look for Northwestern to put it in the air all day long, as QB CJ Bacher has already thrown for 3,300 yards this season. The Fightin' Illini are 1-5 against the spread in their last six as a home favorite and has lost to the Wildcats each of the past four meetings. Although we don't necessarily expect them to win this game, they will keep it close and we wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off the victory.
Louisville (+8.5) at South Florida, 8pm
The Cardinals look to have a little bit of life coming down the strech run. They have beaten Pitt and Cincinnati while losing two tough ones on the road against West Virginia and Connecticut, a couple of respectable losses. Meanwhile, South Florida hasn't beaten anyone good since the West Virginia game in late September. Louisville QB Brian Brohm has excelled even as his defense has floundered. The future first round draft pick has thrown for 28 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. This is the same Louisville offense that hung 31 on South Florida last season. Look for the Cardinals to come out slingin' and go toe to toe with the Bulls all night long. Fuck Grothie.
Kentucky at Georgia (-8), 12:30pm
Bulldogs head coach Mark Richt has been pulling out every trick in the book in recent weeks, and they have all been working. Back to back wins over Florida and Auburn put them in the thick of the SEC championship race behind Jersey product Knowshawn Moreno, who just so happens to be on his way to the SEC freshman rushing record. Kentucky has played a brutal schedule and it has caught up to them down the stretch. Andre' Woodson may be able to throw the ball a bit, but look for the Wildcats to have trouble keeping it close Between The Hedges. Gooooo Georgia Bulldogs!!
Wisconsin (-14) at Minnesota, 3:30pm
Minnesota is 1-10 and has lost to a mediocre 1-AA team, North Dakota State. They cannot stop the run. Wisconsin is coming off a win against arguably the nation's hottest team, Michigan. Wisconsin is a team who is going to run the ball, and they are going to run it well. It should be a walk in the park for the Badgers as they put up Playstation numbers against this awful Golden Gopher football team.
Ohio State at Michigan (+4), noon
Speaking of the Wolverines... They were the hottest team in the nation before last week's loss at Camp Randall. In his first big game as Buckeye quarterback Todd Boeckman did not look like he was up to the test. If he wasn't ready to play at home against Illinois, we can't imagine that he'll be prepared to walk into The Big House. Ohio State-Michigan is the type of rivalry that makes college football great. You can't find these types of games in other sports. With the Big Ten title on the line, the Wolverines will be able to take care of business at home.
The Weekly is coming to you from Clemson, South Carolina about to witness the premier game in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season. It should be some scene with about 85,000 drunk rednecks wearing orange and white. Especially since it's a 7:45pm start time. Of course, we would be remiss if we failed to mention that The Game is this weekend. Continuing the most played rivalry in college football history, Lafayette travels to Lehigh for the 143rd meeting between the schools. If the Leopards can pull off the win, it would be the first graduating class since 1950 to never lose to Lehigh. Get it done fellas.
Till next week...
Many Hundos.
Volume III, Issue IX
Saturday, November 10, 2007
When it rains, it pours. Another brutal week. We just can't catch a break. South Carolina allowed Arkansas to run for over 500 yards -- and they came within one touchdown of a cover. Wake Forest covered the game time spread (+1.5), but not our spread (pk). Oklahoma State led 35-14 in the fourth quarter, just to allow Texas to come back and win, earning the miracle push. Fresno State's defense stayed at home. Boston College simply fell apart. Illinois was a total layup, Minnesota should be thrown out of the Big Ten, much like Colorado should be thrown out of the Big XII (that's for the die hard readers of The Weekly, I know there are many of you). The ball is going to bounce our way eventually. This is the week we begin the march back to .500!! Get on the train before you miss it.
Illinois (+15) at Ohio State, 3:30pm
We don't believe that Ohio State is going to be looking past Illinois, but if they are looking past them they will lose the game. Illinois has a tough running game and will be able to eat up chunks of clock to at least keep this one close. Ohio State, notorious for running up the score in blowouts, doesn't have any need to impress voters. A win this week and a win next week will put them in the national title game, regardless of margin of victory. Plus, Illinois was the only team who didn't want to lose for The Weekly last week, we'll try to make it two in a row from the Fightin' Illini.
Kansas (-6) at Oklahoma State, 8pm The Jayhawks are off to their first 9-0 start in the school's 99 year history. Oklahoma State is coming off another 4th quarter meltdown against Texas, where they blew a 21 point lead. We're simply going with Kansas because of the momentum factor, and the Who Has More To Lose theorem. Kansas' running game is punishing and they have a perfect season on the line. Oklahoma State might just continue to fall apart here. We think they will.
South Florida (-16) at Syracuse, noon Taking advantage of the fact that the Bulls are coming off of three straight losses and this line is a little too small. The Orange jumped out to a lead against Rutgers and let Mike Teel pick them apart for a Rutgers win and cover. Syracuse couldn't stop the Indian Hills freshman football team right now ("They [Indian Hills] are worst football team I've ever seen." -Garrison Ward). South Florida QB Matt Grothie's tactics will work well against the inferior 'Cuse D. Bulls in a laugher.
Southern California (-4) at Cal, 8pm The Trojans still have a lot to play for, even though the national championship is out of the picture now. A BCS bowl is still a good possibility if they win out. Cal, on the other hand, had lost three straight before bouncing back to beat Washington State last week. Although, you can hardly call beating Washington State by a field goal bouncing back. Look for the fast Trojan D to be all over Cal WR DeSean Jackson, the Bears' best offensive weapon. The Trojans pull away in the second half against a team that was never deserving of a #2 ranking.
Florida State at Virginia Tech, Under 39.5, 3:30pm We got bitten by the under in a Florida State game a few weeks back, but this game is in Blacksburg. In their past five home games the Tech defense has allowed 7, 7, 3, 10 and 14 points. The Hokies are another team who has a lot to play for, with a possible ACC title game trip and rematch with Boston College on the line. The Florida State defense is loaded with speed and longtime defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews knows how to utilize every ounce of it. Not to mention Sean Glennon should be playing quarterback for the Hokies. Look for the atmosphere to be electric in Lane Stadium, as the 'Noles will have a tough time scoring.
Five games for your gambling pleasure.
Many Hundos.
Volume III, Issue VIII
Saturday, November 3, 2007
As former New York Jets head coach Herman Edwards put it so simply, "You play to win the game." The same is true in the gambling world, probably even more so. The main reason that people gamble is so that they can win some cold, hard cash. At the same time though, gambling would not be as enjoyable as it is if there was no risk involved. The people who bet on sports are people who love to live on the edge, because, to many the rush of betting on a game is incomparable. If there was no losing, the winning would never be great and gambling would be no fun -- without losing, gambling simply wouldn't be gambling. The Weekly has had a rough stretch the last two weeks, going a paltry 2-7 in our last nine games. Although this mark is totally unacceptable, it reminds The Weekly of how riveting gambling really is. The bad times make the good times feel that much better, and the times that are about to come for readers of The Weekly are about to get a lot better. This looks to be a monster week. Florida State at Boston College (- 6.5), 8pm
The Seminoles come into this game not playing total team football. The "X-Factor" Xavier Lee is suspended and Drew Weatherford is starting at quarterback. Before beating lowly Duke last week, the 'Noles lost to both Miami and Wake Forest. Matty "Heisman" Ryan and the Eagles are focused on not only winning an ACC title, but being the first ACC team to play for the national championship since, well, Florida State in 2001 (where they lost to Oklahoma 13-2). The Eagles just have too much at stake, while the Seminoles have too many problems to work out.
Texas at Oklahoma State (+3), 3:30pm
The Cowboys haven't beaten the Longhorns since 1997, but this seems like the perfect time for Okie State revenge. Texas QB Colt McCoy has been incredibly inconsistent (as The Weekly said he was the nation's most overrated player) by throwing 15 touchdowns but also 13 interceptions. Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson has been magnificent in filling in for the multi-dimensional Bobby Reid, by throwing for 13 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Cowboys have covered six consecutive games after coming off a game where they did not cover, and are 4-1 in their last five as a home dog. Texas, on the other hand, is 1-5 in their last six games as a road favorite. Mack Brown has continually proven that he is a mediocre football coach when anyone other than Vince Young is quarterbacking his team, this game will continue to show not only Brown's mediocrity, but total incompetence. Cowboys win.
Utah State at Fresno State (-20.5), 5pm
Utah State is 0-8 on the season. Fresno State is having a rebound year in which they have jumped out to five wins in their first eight games. Utah State beat Fresno State last year for the first time since 1991, and each of the previous three Fresno State wins were blowouts. The Bulldogs are on a mission to revenge last year's loss, and are up against the right team. Despite the Aggies good record against the spread (4-4), Pat Hill and the gang will run up the score just enough so that bettors won't be worried in the fourth quarter. Bulldogs win big.
Illinois (-12) at Minnesota, 8pm
Minnesota couldn't stop 1-AA North Dakota State's running attack, you think they can stop Juice Williams and Rashard Mendenhall? Yeah, me neither. Now that the Illini are becoming respected not only around the Big Ten, but around the country, they need to take care of lesser opponents like the Gophers. If Illinois cannot win this game by a minimum of two touchdowns The Weekly will be shocked and you won't see Illinois in the Top 25 until at least 2009. Illinois wins by a large margin.
Wake Forest (pk) at Virginia, noon
The sixth rule of college football betting: never believe in the University of Virginia. The defending ACC champ, Wake Forest, started the year 0-2, after losing close ones to Boston College and Nebraska. Since then, the Demon Deacons have reeled off six straight and put themselves right back into the thick of the ACC race. Virginia is a sissy school, just ask Colin "The Herd" Cowherd. ("They drink Zima at tailgates while Virginia Tech kicks their ass.") Wake is flying high after winning six straight and will control this game all day. Riley Skinner will continue to be a delight to watch and Wake wins an easy one on the road.
South Carolina (+5.5) at Arkansas
The Ol' Ball Coach is at it again. The Gamecocks are sitting at 6-3 and are still alive for an SEC title game birth. South Carolina is coming off of two tough losses but will be able to rebound against a Razorback team that has not passed a test all year long. Arkansas has won five games this year, only one of those against an SEC team (which was Ole Miss, who has been down for years), four of Arkansas' five wins have been cupcakes. South Carolina is battle tested and should be more than ready to enter the tough environment that can be Fayetteville, Arkansas. Look for The Man, The Legend Steve Spurrier to pull out his bag of tricks as the 'Cocks pull past the tough crowd and win the ballgame.
Just like at T.C. Williams High School we strive for perfection. Nothing less will be accepted. Our fan base expects perfection and more importantly our team expects perfection. We were asked to be more than just good, we were asked to be perfect, and God damnit, we will be. This marks the first time in Weekly history that six games have been picked. This is not a move of desperation. This is simply a factor of The Weekly truly liking the outcome of six games, nothing more. Six wins. Nothing less is acceptable. Only perfection.
Go Bergen. Beat Bosco.
Many hundos.
Volume III, Issue VII
Saturday, October 27, 2007
The Weekly's season has somewhat mirrored that of the college football season itself; a true roller coaster ride. We aren't catching any breaks right now, but eventually the tide will turn. Speaking of not catching any breaks, how about Friday night? A complete disgrace in West Hartford. The "fair catch touchdown" broke Louisville's back and our collective bank accounts with it. (Just on a side note, how does that happen? What are the officials watching? If The Weekly was Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe we might have thrown the most insane tantrum in sports history. Maybe lay down on the 50 yard line until the call is overturned. Something stupid would have happened.) Miami and Florida State scored points against each other for the first time since the new millennium. Kansas looked impressive, as The Weekly watched on, in doing something Oklahoma couldn't do, beating Colorado on the road. The lone win came as Tim Tebow and the Gators took care of Kentucky for the 21st straight time and began their attempt to become the first 2-loss national champion since Minnesota in 1960 (the Gophers were crowned national champs before their loss to Washington in the Rose Bowl). Following a solid 3-1 week with a disgusting 1-3 performance was not in the plans, but we're gonna weather the storm and get back on the plus side right here.
As always... the picks for week number nine of your 2007 college football season.
South Florida (-4) at Connecticut, 3:30pm
We're gonna give this one more try. Going against the Huskies at home last week bit us in the ass, but we still don't believe the basketball school just yet. Last week Rutgers finally proved that South Florida isn't a top-5 team, but they are still in the hunt for the Big East title and BCS berth. If you didn't know how upside down this season really is, Connecticut is in first place in the Big East and ranked in the BCS standings for the first time in school history. Look for that to change as the Husky offensive line, which is 83rd in the nation in sacks allowed, is going up against a Bulls defense which may boast as many as seven future NFLers. On the offensive side, Weekly adversary Matt Grothe's 17 second scrambles will be effective against a lesser defense and the Bulls win on the road.
Minnesota at Michigan (-23.5), 3:30pm
These teams have one thing in common this year: they both lost to 1-AA teams. Other than that there is nothing even remotely similar between the two teams. Minnesota is an embarrassment to the conference right now. If a Big Ten team was going to lose to any 1-AA team it would be two-time defending national champion Appalachian State. We aren't defending Michigan for losing that game, but the Golden Gophers just got run over, literally and figuratively, but North Dakota State to the tune of 300 yards on the ground. Mike Hart is questionable, it won't matter. Michigan is too talented and on a mission to win the Big Ten. The Wolverines in a laugher.
Nebraska at Texas (-20.5), 3:30pm
We've really been trying to stay away from these 20+ point lines this year, but these two were just too good to pass up. Nebraska is falling apart. Since beating lowly Iowa State, the Huskers have been outscored 122-34 in their last three games. Their AD has already been fired, and it's almost inconceivable that the Bill Callahan experiment will continue. You think new AD Tom Osborne likes the West Coast offense? We didn't think so either. Callahan is going to be out and hopefully we'll see some old fashioned triple option like Nebraska should be running. But we digress, Texas can play some serious D even though the offense isn't what it was in the Vince Young days. They won't need to play much offense to cover on Saturday, as Nebraska will put up a paltry single digit on the scoreboard.
Indiana (+8.5) at Wisconsin, noon
The Hoosiers are coming off two straight losses going into Madison on Saturday but should be in good position rebound against this Badger team. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis reminds some of former QB Antwaan Randel-El for his duel threat abilities and WR James Hardy is probably the toughest match up in the country for any defense. At 6'7", the former hoops star is impossible for any secondary to match up against. Penn State's talented DB Justin King got torched by Hardy for 14 catches, 142 yards and 2 touchdowns just last week. Wisconsin QB Tyler Donovan's inconsistent play (12 touchdowns, 8 interceptions) will come back to kill the Badgers in the end. This one should be a shootout, as it has been for the past few seasons, so we'll take the points and a ride the Lewis-Hardy train.
New Mexico State at Hawaii - Over 79.5, 11:55pm
Rule 1: Always take the over when the number is 70 or more. Colt Brennan may not win the Heisman this year, but he still is putting up monster numbers, only trailing Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell in total yards. New Mexico State is still looking for its stride offensively and Saturday seems like as good a day as any to get untracked as the Hawaii defense is almost as bad as the offense is good. Hawaii will score, New Mexico State will score enough.
We're going big this week with five picks, trying to make that big second half push.
Many hundos.
The Weekly's Heisman Ballot
Friday, October 26, 2007
The Heisman race is starting to take some shape, yet it is still waiting for someone to take total control, a la Troy Smith in '06. Once again, the criteria for winning the Heisman is "college football's most outstanding player". This can mean many things to many different people. This is The Weekly's view on college football's most outstanding players thus far in the 2007 season (as of Friday morning).
1. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College. The numbers are nice. Actually the numbers are really good (2433 yards, 19 touchdowns, 8 picks) but you can almost throw the numbers out right now. After the first 56 minutes of the game at Virginia Tech, Matt Ryan had dropped out of the Heisman race and his team was about to drop out of the top-10. The last 4 minutes catapulted Matty "Heisman" into the top spot. Ryan drove down the field for a touchdown twice in the final four minutes. The game winning touchdown was an incredible scramble and throw against his body for a 24 yard score to Andre Callender in the corner of the end zone (which was really a 40-45 yard throw in the air). If he leads his team to an undefeated season and BCS championship berth, Ryan is your winner.
2. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida. Nobody does was Tebow does. Nobody is more important to his team's successes. How many quarterbacks can run play action without a running back to fake a hand off to? He powers like a fullback for every critical short yardage play. Then he'll kill you with his golden left arm for a 54 yard score down the middle. The kid can do it all, and is doing it all in the toughest conference in the country.
3. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan. Despite not playing last week, Hart has been more impressive than any other runner in the nation. He has been carrying the Wolverines on his back as he has carried 200 times in just seven games and averaging over 5 yards per carry. As long as Hart can come back he'll keep Michigan in the thick of the Big Ten race and himself in the thick of the Heisman race.
4. Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon. He can make a big move this week as the mighty Trojans visit wild Autzen field. (On a side note, we can't remember the last time the Trojans were an underdog before this weekend.) Dixon's play has allowed the Ducks to get back into the national title hunt. His Pac-10 numbers are Tebow-like, throwing for 1728 yards and 16 touchdowns, while running for 416 yards and 7 touchdowns.
5. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. McFadden has rushed for over 100 yards in all but one game this season. His team continues to struggle but Darren continues to thrive despite defenses game planning to stop him. It doesn't get better than when McFadden lines up at quarterback to run the Wildcat offense that the Razorbacks have set up simply because of his astounding athletic abilities.
On the radar: Andre' Woodson, QB, Kentucky. DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech.
Off the radar: Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii. Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri. Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia.
Never on the radar: Matt Grothe, QB, South Florida.
Volume III, Issue VI
Friday, October 19, 2007
True to form, The Weekly is making its mid-season push. Winning three out of four games last week gets us moving in the right direction for the rest of the season. Not too many bad things coming out of last week. Texas Tech and Buffalo both easily covered. Missouri got backdoored by a late touchdown to seemingly miss a cover, then came right back with a later touchdown of their own to re-backdoor Oklahoma. The lone loss from the week was getting hooked by Boston College. It's been said in this space before to never get beat by the hook, but then again we weren't counting on Weekly friend and BC kicker Steve Aponavicius to miss an extra point and a field goal. You're killin' us, Steve. Due to The Weekly's attendance at the Rutgers-South Florida barn burner and homecoming weekend at Lafayette this is going to be a somewhat abridged issue of The Weekly. We'll be back with our normally loquacious version next week.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Louisville (-3) at Connecticut, 8pm
The Huskies are off to a surprising 5-1 start but don't think that is a measure of how they will fare in Big East play. Their five wins have come against Duke, Maine, Temple, Pitt and Akron. Brian Brohm and the Cardinals tore up the Husky secondary in last year's 48-17 thrashing. Granted, Louisville isn't the same team they were a year ago, but that offense can still hang points on the scoreboard. Brohm goes off for another 300+ yards and a handful of touchdowns as Louisville wins their second straight Big East game and springs back into the conference title picture.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Florida (-6.5) at Kentucky, 3:30pm
There is one major factor at work here. Last week when LSU went into Lexington to play Kentucky, LSU was coming off an epic battle with the Gators. Now, it's Kentucky who is coming off an epic battle with LSU as the Gators watched in Gainesville resting up for this week. It was pretty clear how Les Miles' LSU team tired at the end of the game and overtime last week, look for the same out of Kentucky this week against that well rested Florida offense. If Kentucky is going to win this week they are going to have to replicate the near perfect offensive line play they got last week since the book on Florida is to try to beat their young secondary deep. It seems unlikely that Kentucky will get that kind of performance again from the O-Line while Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin and the rest of the speedy Gator offense will take care of business.
Miami at Florida State, Under 41.5, 3:30pm
This rivalry is notorious for a lack of points. Each of the last six games in this series have gone under the posted total. Last year there were 23 points scored, in 2005 17 points scored, in 2004 26 points scored, in the 2004 Orange Bowl they totaled up 30 points... get the idea? There should be a lot more of the same this week as both offenses seem inept, while there will be a truckload of defensive talent on the field.
Kansas at Colorado (+3.5)
Ask Oklahoma if the Buffs are tough at home. The Jayhawks are leaving the state of Kansas for the first time this season and going into a tough place to play. The Buffaloes have shown flashes of once again becoming the proud program they once were under 2nd year coach Dan Hawkins. Oh, and did we mention that the last time Kansas went to Boulder, they lost 44-13. We smell an upset.
There you have it. Four games. Four more mid-season winners.
Many hundos
Volume III, Issue V
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Instead of the usual harping on yet another losing week, we're gonna change it up a little bit in this space and only talk about the good. Last week Missouri locked up the sole win for The Weekly in one of the most comfortable wins you'll ever have gambling. They dominated from the first minute to the last and sent a message to the rest of the Big XII in the process. The really good news is that traditionally The Weekly doesn't hit mid-season form until.... well, mid-season. At this point in the season last year The Weekly stood at 8-10-1. Starting with the weekend of October 14th The Weekly hit its stride, going 15-10 (the 60% clip we're looking for) through the rest of the season. We're looking to out-do that mark and get to 60% for the year, so look for winners, winners and more winners from here on out.
As always... the picks for week number seven of your 2007 college football season.
Boston College (-13.5) at Notre Dame, 3:30pm
The best thing that could have happened for Boston College is that Notre Dame won last week. The Irish finally getting a win under their belt, especially one on the road, will force the Eagles to take the Irish seriously. Notre Dame won last week by playing conservatively and not shooting themselves in the foot. It's going to take a lot more than that to beat the Eagles this week. Charlie Weis is going to have to open up the offense and take his chances with freshman QB Jimmy Claussen if Notre Dame wants to make this one interesting -- and on that note we'll take Boston College.
Missouri (+12) at Oklahoma, 6:30pm
We can't seem to get an Oklahoma game right so we'll flip the switch and go against them this week. The Sooners have been unimpressive for two straight weeks now, making it look like they just aren't as good as we originally thought. Missouri QB Chase Daniel looks to be the real deal and will give the Sooners' D fits all day long. This would be a landmark win for the Tigers since they haven't beaten Oklahoma since 1998. Our boy Chase makes a few more plays than Sooners' freshman QB Sam Bradford for a Missouri win. (Yes, a Missouri win.)
Texas A&M at Texas Tech (-10), 3:30pm
The Red Raiders offense is hitting on all cylinders, as is usually the case with Mike Leach's program. The good news for the Aggies is that they've won their last 2 games and come into this week at 5-1, but the bad news is that they have the 75th ranked passing defense in the nation, allowing 237 yards per game. Tech QB Graham Harrell is going to throw the ball, the Aggies defense knows he is going to throw the ball, but they don't have any weapons to stop him. The only way they stop him is by running the ball and playing keep away, but that can only work for so long. The home field advantage coupled with A&M's off the field issues are just too much to overcome, as Harrell throws for 550 yards and a Red Raider win.
Toledo at Buffalo (-4.5)
This pick is for faithful Weekly reader Tyler Zeronda. Turner Gill has that program moving in the right direction. At 2-1 in conference play the Bulls look like a sleeper in the MAC, a conference which is a shell of its old self. Toledo is coming off a 35-34 squeaker win over 1-AA Liberty and Buffalo is coming off a big 31-10 win over pre-season MAC favorite Ohio. Buffalo is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games against teams with losing records, meanwhile the Rockets are 1-4 in their last five against the spread and 1-5 in their last six as a road underdog. We're going with Turner's boys.
We're in mid-season form now. Lots of winners this week.
Many hundos.
The Weekly's Heisman Ballot
Friday, October 12, 2007
With the season starting to take shape the Heisman race is still wide open. The criteria for winning the Heisman is "college football's most outstanding player". This can mean many things to many different people. This week The Weekly will give its view on college football's most outstanding players thus far in the 2007 season.
1. DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal. His game against Oregon was a Heisman performance (11 catches, 161 yards, 2 TD). His team is ranked 2nd in the nation and he is a huge reason why.
2. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College. Ryan has put up impressive numbers in leading his team to a 6-0 start. He's averaging over 300 yards per game in the air and his team has put up 30 points in all but two of its games. Unthinkable at the beginning of the year, the Eagles have an opportunity to make a run at the BCS title game.
3. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan. The man is a workhorse. He has carried 179 times for 976 yards and has found the endzone ten times in just six games. He single handedly beat Penn State with his incredible 44 carry performance.
4. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. Tough to distinguish between McFadden and Hart here since both of their teams have not performed. A few more losses by either Michigan or Arkansas and these guys could fall out of the race. McFadden's third place finish a year ago definitely helps his chances this season, and is undoubtedly the best offensive weapon in the nation.
5. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida. Putting up Vince Young like numbers; third in the nation in passing efficiency and already has 500 yards rushing. He is becoming impossible to defend and is more central to his team's success than probably anybody else in the country.
6. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech. Here's a guy you probably don't know. The Texas Tech freshman has caught 70 balls for 1,074 yards and 17 TDs in just six games. He's scored 3 TDs in five of his six collegiate games. These are numbers that you just cannot ignore. Look for him to get more press as he is going to shatter the Division 1-A record for touchdowns (Troy Edwards, 27) and yards (Trevor Insley, 2,060) in a season.
On the radar: Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri. Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon. Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois. Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville.
Volume III, Issue IV
Saturday, October 6, 2007
In what was supposed to be a bounce back week for The Weekly, we struggled to another losing mark. The one win, three loss performance has The Weekly looking for a winning week like the New Mexico State teams of the late '80s (see
here, we don't top the list yet). As always, the bad news first. The weekend got off to a brutal start with West Virginia falling to South Florida for the second straight season. Once we saw Pat White go down with what looked to be a fairly serious knee injury, we knew it was going to be a tough night for the Mountaineers. Both teams got off to a slow start in the Cal-Oregon game before playing some, as Weekly favorite Rick Majerus would say, oh-fence. The over only got interesting when the Ducks tried to force overtime, which we would have gladly taken our chances with. How about Oklahoma? Watching that game in the 3rd quarter (gotta love FOX Sports Net for airing random games) we looked solid; Sooners 24 - Buffaloes 7, Sooner ball. Apparently the proverbial wheels fell off of the Sooner Schooner shortly thereafter. Not only did the Sooners fail to cover, they failed to even win the game. Disgraceful. There was some light at the end of the tunnel this past week as Ron Zook led his Illini over Penn State for their first win over a ranked opponent since 2001. Freshman WR Rejus Benn was the story of the day, scoring twice and once again proving that the Zooker can really recruit.
On to the picks for week number five of your 2007 college football season.
TCU (+3) at Wyoming, 2pm
The Horned Frogs were a trendy pick to be the 2007 version of Boise State, the non-BCS conference hope to break into a BCS game. A couple of losses have silenced those prognosticators but this team is very good, and just beginning to find the running game which they rely upon. Junior RB Aaron Brown cracked the 100 yard mark last week and is averaging 6.4 yards per carry. But TCU's bread and butter is on the defensive side of the football. In their two games since losses at Texas and at Air Force, the TCU defense has only allowed 19 points. This doesn't bode well for Wyoming who has struggled after two solid wins to open the season. Last week the Cowboys needed a late touchdown to beat Ohio, and the previous week they fell to aforementioned Boise State. The Horned Frogs are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 Mountain West games and have covered 4 of their last 5 as a small underdog (3 points or less). Meanwhile, the Cowboys are an unimpressive 1-4 in their last 5 as a small favorite and 2-9 against the spread following a game in which they didn't cover (they failed to cover against Ohio last week.) The forecast is calling for snow this weekend in Laramie so look for the TCU running game and defense to rule the day and win outright.
Oklahoma (-11.5) vs. Texas
at The Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas, 3:30pm
Don't think that one hiccup is going to sway us away from the Sooners. Oklahoma had a tough game last week and should be refocused after that hiccup. On the flip side, Texas' season has been full of hiccups. The Longhorns narrowly beat Arkansas State, were on the ropes for a while against TCU, and barely escaped Central Florida. Texas QB Colt McCoy may be the most overrated player in the nation. This season he has thrown the ball to the other team (9 interceptions) more than he has into the endzone (8 touchdown passes). Texas has struggled against some more physical teams and look for Oklahoma's three headed monster at running back to dominate the game. The Sooners are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as a favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 as a favorite of more than 10 points. The Red River has been owned by Texas the past two years, but look for the Sooners to come out and have a statement game, taking this rivalry back home to Oklahoma.
Georgia (pk) at Tennessee, 3:30pm
The Bulldogs come into this game riding a three game winning streak and a big win in Knoxville would propel them right back into the thick of the crowded SEC East race. Tennessee is 2-2 on the season with wins against Southern Miss and Arkansas State, not the most impressive resume. This team was unable to stop the Florida offense 3 weeks ago and there's no reason to think they'll be able to stop the Bulldogs on Saturday. The Bulldogs are a team who is one year away from being amongst the nation's elite, with Sophomore QB Matthew Stafford starting to come into his own and a backfield cluttered with talented runners. The Dawgs are a team on their way up and Tennessee doesn't look like a team headed anywhere right now.
Nebraska at
Missouri (-6), 9:15pm
Very interesting game in the Big XII North. Missouri is undefeated and needs to get their conference season going with a win. QB Chase Daniel is a Weekly favorite, for his explosive combination of speed, throwing accuracy, and intelligence. Nebraska got manhandled by USC again, then suffered what seemed to be a USC hangover against Ball State, squeaking out a 41-40 victory. The Huskers haven't fared well in the gambling arena either. Against the spread they are 1-4 in their last 5 as an underdog, 0-4-1 in their last 5 road games, 0-4 in their last 4 overall and 0-4 in their last 4 against teams with a winning record. On the other hand, the Tigers have out dueled the bookmakers, going 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games overall, 8-1 in their last 9 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. We love the Tigers in this spot.
Things are looking up this week. In a Mike Hart like move The Weekly guarantees a winning week. Yes, that's right, Mike Hart's words about beating lowly Notre Dame have inspired us. So there you have it...
Many hundos.
News, Notes and Banter
Friday, October 5, 2007
Since when is Kentucky-South Carolina a meaningful game in a conference with LSU, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn and Alabama? Just goes to show how deep the best conference in football really is... On that same note, Steve Spurrier is the man. Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky and put some serious hurtin's on them when he was with the Gators. How about this quote from the Ol' Ball Coach himself talking about last season, "We thought we did something big beating Clemson, then Kentucky beat them, also." Great stuff... Hawaii is a 39 point favorite and we're starting to get used to it... South Florida didn't have a football program a dozen years ago, they are now a top-10 team. That's what kind of year it has been so far... Staying in the Big East, Rutgers-Cincy is a game to watch these days. Never thought we would say that... Nobody has separated themselves in the Big Ten... The Big XII may look up for grabs, but Oklahoma is still the team to beat... Can we get some love for the Sun Belt? They've been putting up fights all year long against top flight competition and actually have gotten a few big wins ( i.e. Florida Atlantic over Minnesota).
Volume III, Issue III
Friday, September 28, 2007
The Weekly stumbled through Week 4 to a 1-4 record, looking more like the '07 Irish than the '94 Cornhuskers. We'll start with the bad first. A Weekly favorite, Steve Spurrier, stuck it to us with a backdoor cover at LSU. As predicted in this space last week, Texas Tech threw for over 600 yards (645), but somehow managed to give the game away to Oklahoma State; big thanks to the Tech defense on that one. New Mexico State hung with Auburn for about 26 minutes and Air Force didn't show up on Saturday in a big Mountain West game. At least we salvaged the week with Ohio State thumping Northwestern for the third straight year. Last week is over and is just a speed bump in a marathon of a season. To the detractors of The Weekly, who have presented completely unfounded statements and thus made themselves look totally ignorant in the past week, our record speaks for itself. We don't hate here though, we let the haters hate.
The winners for week number five your your 2007 college football season...
Friday, September 28, 2007
West Virginia (-6.5) at South Florida, 8pm
Both teams had very solid victories last weekend. South Florida took it to a reeling North Carolina squad, while the Mountaineers beat a tough East Carolina team, which took the Mountaineers to the wire last season. West Virginia was particularly impressive last week because of the way that they beat East Carolina. The Mountaineers are known for their explosive plays on the offensive side of the ball. By breaking long runs and using their seemingly endless supply of speed, the Mountaineers have been able to run opponents right off the field. Last week was a different story, though. West Virginia methodically drove down the field and scored touchdown after touchdown. Pat White looked seasoned in the pocket, not looking to run at the first ounce of pressure. He has completed 71% of his passes this year and has yet to throw an interception. Many are calling for a Bulls' upset, but this is going to be the game where the Mountaineers show the nation they are among the elite. Rich Rodriguez' teams have always played well away from home and don't think the Mountaineers forgot about the loss to South Florida last year. The Mountaineers in revenge mode are the play.
Saturday, September 30, 2007
Cal at Oregon - Over 73, 3:30pm
There isn't much defense being played in the Pac-10 outside the City of Angels. Everyone knows how dangerous the Golden Bears' attack is with all-world wide out DeSean Jackson but the Oregon offense may be even more dynamic. QB Dennis Dixon has the Ducks looking like the West Coast version of West Virginia. In these two teams eight games this season, neither team has scored less than 34 points, and have amassed at least 40 points in six of the eight. You've all heard it before -- a wise man once said, "If an over/under is that high, it's that high for a reason. Take the over." We sure will.
Penn State at Illinois (+3), 12pm
Penn State's offense was exposed last weekend at Michigan. They are riddled with question marks all over the field right now. Despite not being the best of coaches, Ron Zook is a phenomenal. recruiter (just ask Urban Meyer who just won a national title with his players) and Illinois is much more talented than people believe them to be. QB Juice Williams is a play maker, they have a very underrated D-Line, and LB J Leman is one of the best in the business, not to mention a sweet name. This could be a day where Illinois can really make a statement that they have started to turn it around. We love home dogs and the Illini to win outright.
Oklahoma (-23) at Colorado, 1:30pm We're getting flashbacks to 2003 - USC, LSU and Oklahoma. These Sooners look like they are on a mission to avenge their 2003 National Championship game debacle against the Trojans. Colorado is not a very good team and Oklahoma has superior talent. Nobody has been able to hold the Sooners to under 50 points in their first four games and look for that trend to continue. Oklahoma covered in nine of their last ten road games. Colorado has lost four straight against the spread to teams with winning records and five straight games as an underdog. Oklahoma hangs 50 here and covers with relative ease.
Four winners to get us back on track. Sorry for the tardiness, as I haven't had too much computer access this week. Be sure to look for next week's Weekly on Thursday as we make some important additions to the column.
Many Hundos.
Volume III, Issue II
Saturday, September 22, 2007
The Weekly looks like the '94 Nebraska Cornhuskers with Tommy Frazier at the helm after opening up at 4-0-1 in our first week of '07. Our three underdogs not only covered, but won their games outright. Iowa State made it four straight years and 10 of 11 years covering against archrival Iowa, taking those 17.5 points and shoving them right up the Hawkeyes' collective ass. Boston College looks like the class of the ACC, as Matt Ryan took the heat of the Georgia Tech defense in stride, just as The Weekly expected. Kentucky's Rafael Little rushed for 156 yards, while Louisville's Anthony Allen only rushed for 96, Kentucky took the game. Hawaii scored, UNLV scored enough. Virginia Tech just doesn't score, but they pushed and we all know a push is a win, since it's not a loss.
Now, onto the locks for Week number four of your 2007 college football season...
Northwestern at
Ohio State (-23) First off, Northwestern lost to Duke last week, at home. The same Duke squad who previously lost 22 straight games. So going on the road to Columbus seems like a tall order. Since losing to Northwestern in 2004, the Buckeyes have put two hurtins on the lowly Wildcats to the tune of 48-7 in '05, and 54-10 in '06. The '07 version of Ohio State won't draw a lot of comparison to the dominant '06 team, but these guys can still play defense with the best of them and LB James Laurinaitis is a force. Northwestern will be lucky to score any points in this game. Beanie Wells is a great downhill runner and is going to be able to dominate a reeling Wildcat defense. Oh, did we already mention they lost to Duke last week? Duke.
Texas Tech (-6) at Oklahoma State
The Red Raiders know how to put up points. Oklahoma State doesn't know how to stop opponents from putting up points. Mike Leach is a truly a brilliant offensive coach, as opposed to some others who get more fanfare. Last week Troy sliced up the Cowboy defense and Tech is a much more talented offensive team. Look for 600 yards out of the Red Raider offense. In their two real games the Cowboy defense has allowed 35 points to Georgia and 41 points to Troy, not a recipe for many wins. We don't like road favorites, but that's alright, the Raiders are the play here.
South Carolina at
LSU (-18) Steve Spurrier is a legend. Wagering against the Ol' Ball Coach is usually gambling suicide, but LSU is scary good, especially when playing on the bayou. The Tigers have outscored opponents 137-7 through three games. No folks, not a typo, 137-7. They beat one top-10 team in Virginia Tech and an underrated Mississippi State team (who just went to Auburn and won, for you skeptics). South Carolina's offense was limited by a good Georgia defense but it cannot compare to what the Tigers will throw out on the field Saturday. The Gamecock passing game seems to be really missing 2007 2nd round pick Sydney Rice and his explosiveness. We really like the direction of the Gamecock program in recent years, but keeping close with the talent and speed that LSU has on the field at all times is going to be near impossible for anyone this side of USC, Florida or Oklahoma. Make it 4-0 for the Bayou Bengals.
Air Force (+11.5) at BYU The Falcons are flying high, off to an unexpected 3-0 start under first year head coach Troy Calhoun. For all the talk of a major scheme change, away from Fisher DeBerry's triple option, Air Force has followed the same formula that has been working for them in past years. Under the leadership of senior QB Shaun Carney, the Falcons have rushed for 253 yards per game and the defense is ranked 12th in the nation in scoring at 10.7 points allowed per game. BYU has gotten out of the gates slowly. After an opening day win against Arizona (which isn't looking too impressive the way the Wildcats are playing), the Cougars have fallen to UCLA and Tulsa. Putting together Air Force's big win against heavily favored TCU and BYU's recent troubles, look for an entertaining game with Air Force coming out as winners.
New Mexico State (+16.5) at Auburn
The Weekly loves offense. Some of our favorites include Steve Spurrier, the entire Texas Tech and Hawaii programs and, of course, Grinnell College hoops (see
here). It's about time we put New Mexico State on our list of favorites. In just three games QB Chase Holbrook has thrown for nearly 1200 yards and 11 TDs, while completing passes at a 73.6% clip. In the meantime, Auburn has had a tough go early in the season. The Tigers have stumbled to two home losses to South Florida and Mississippi State, giving the faithful fanbase reason to call for Tommy Tubberville's head. The Aggies are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games, while Auburn is 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 as a home favorite of over 10 points, and 1-7 in their last 8 as a home favorite. Look for the Aggies offense to keep them in this one.
There it is, five locks for your gambling pleasure. Until next week....
Many Hundos.
Volume III, Issue I
Saturday, September 15, 2007
I'm sure everyone else is as excited for the third season of College Football Weekly as I am. The 2006 campaign was a bit of a disappointment by the Weekly's standards, but still a success by most standards. A 23-20-1 season, hitting games at a 53% clip, would give most fan bases reason for excitement, but we are held to a higher standard here. Shooting for at least 60% this season isn't unrealistic, it is simply expected.
As I mentioned to a few of you, the Weekly enters Week 3 of the college football season at 5-2, despite the absence of an email. Week 1 wins on the under in the Rutgers-Buffalo game, Boston College over Wake Forest and Cal over Tennessee got us off to a nice 3-0 start. Week 2 wasn't so kind. Splitting two winners, Boston College and LSU, with two losers, Auburn and TCU. Let's keep the winners rollin'. Winners for Saturday, September 15, week number three of your college football season...
Iowa at Iowa State (+17.5)
The Cyclones have gotten off to a terrible start this year, losing to both Kent State and Northern Iowa, but should rebound here against their in-state rivals. Iowa State has given Iowa fits in the past few seasons, going 8-1 against the spread in their last nine meetings, including the past three seasons where the Cyclones were 10+ point underdogs, just as they are on Saturday. Iowa State QB Bret Meyer is a dynamic duel threat player who has game changing ability, look for him to make big plays and lead the Cyclones behind their home crowd.
Boston College (+6.5) at Georgia Tech
The Weekly is riding the Eagles in the early going. Matt Ryan is trying to prove his detractors wrong with some impressive early performances against ACC competition. Two keys to this game are going to be Georgia Tech's ability to run the ball against a stingy BC defense. Tech has run for 327 yards in their first two games, while the BC D has only allowed 58 yards in their first two, while already forcing 11 turnovers. The other key will be Matt Ryan's experience against Tech's zone blitz, which they like to use. If Ryan can keep his composure he will be able to pick apart a shaky Yellow Jacket secondary. Not to mention, the Eagles are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games as an underdog. Look for a veteran offensive line to play well and Matt Ryan to stay composed in the pocket while Boston College wins the game outright in what may be an ACC Championship game preview.
Ohio at Virginia Tech (-21)
The Hokies were dismantled, embarassed, awful, or whatever else you want to call it last week in Baton Rouge. Frank Beamer coached teams don't play that poorly two weeks in a row. They get to rebound this week with a cupcake at home against Ohio. Freshman QB Tyrod Taylor is going to put on a show and this one should be over by halftime. The Hokies bring their lunch pale and win big.
Louisville at Kentucky (+6.5) This is going to be a fun game. Louisville has a lot of locker room material after the UK athletic department used some creative advertising techniques and put Andre Woodson billboards up all over Louisville. Both quarterbacks are phenominal and both defenses are mediocre at best, but the running game is going to decide this one. In each of the last 11 meetings between these two the team who ran the ball better won, and we'll go with UK's Rafael Little to come up big. The Wildcats are an impressive 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games and 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 appearences as a home dog. Kentucky in a barnburner.
Hawaii at UNLV - Over 62.5
Unless you haven't paid college football any attention in the past two seasons you already know all about Colt Brennan, so it's useless to bore you with stats like he's an astonishing 77-101 with 10 TDs and 964 yards in just 2 games. Hawaii scores. UNLV will score enough. Nine touchdowns doesn't seem like a lot here.
The Weekly is glad to be back for season number three, and we plan on having our most successful year ever.
Happy betting.