The success of last week would be based upon whether you read the articles or just looked at the predictions.  The Weekly correctly put our "Moneyline Special" stamp on Weekly Favorite Collin Klein and the Kansas State Wildcats.  With the win over Texas the Wildcats moneyline paid out +265; a number just as absurd as the eight points that the Longhorns were laying.  Houston continued to dominate Conference USA foes, as they walked over punch-less SMU 37-7.  Stanford basically did everything they could to win but not cover.  Up by 15 with the ball early in the fourth quarter, the Cardinal looked like they were headed to a hard fought cover -- and our third win of the week.  But on our way there the Bears stuffed a fourth-and-one because everyone knew what was coming.  The Cardinal have Andrew Luck, how about letting him open it up a little bit?  We understand you are a power running team, but you have the best quarterback in the country let him show it a little bit.  The missed fourth down conversion propelled Cal to two fourth quarter touchdowns, narrowly missing the upset.  Our other setback was at the hands of the Nittany Lions who have played some impressive football considering all the circumstances that surround them.  Ohio State QB Braxton Miller is progressing nicely, but not quickly enough to earn a win over a really good PSU defense.  At 21-16-1 (+3.4 units) we're still in range to get to our 60% mark by year's end.  On to the picks...

Michigan State (-5.5) at Northwestern, noon
     The Spartans are a little undervalued here.  We get the feeling that the oddsmakers are including the possibility that the Spartans may pull or rest some starters to prepare for the inaugural Big Ten title game next weekend, but we can't find any evidence that coach Mark Dantonio is planning to do that.  Northwestern has been hot of late, winning their past four games to get them bowl eligible.  The problem here for the Wildcats is that they haven't faced a defense nearly as tough as this Michigan State one tomorrow.  The Spartan offense is, as usual, really well balanced and this is the same Northwestern defense that allowed Indiana to score 38 points.  Don't look for a blow out but we see Michigan State getting their tenth win tomorrow, 34-24. 

Alabama at Auburn (+21.5), 3:30pm
     With our great apologies to Ohio State-Michigan, Army-Navy and Lehigh-Lafayette, this is the greatest rivalry in college football.  From the outside looking in, it seems that there is no equal in terms of the passion (read: hatred) that each school has for the other.  Perhaps this is because there's not a heck of a lot else to root for in Alabama and that void creates this great passion that often becomes misguided, but that's a whole different article... Based on the fact that this Auburn team has really surprised us and Alabama hasn't looked the same since coming off that tough loss to LSU, we think that 21 points sounds like way too many.  'Bama never really put away Mississippi State two weeks ago and last week it took them a long time to put away FCS Georgia Southern.  Look for the Tigers to be able to hang around with a Tide team that hasn't been an offensive juggernaut.  Alabama 27 - Auburn 13

Penn State at Wisconsin (-14), 3:30pm
     Alright, we're going back to the well one more time.  Can Penn State do it two weeks in a row on the road?  Seems unlikely.  Wisconsin has averaged over 50 points per game in the comfort of Camp Randall.  Granted most of those points weren't scored against a Penn State-caliber defense, but it's pretty obvious that the Badgers play better football at home.  The Penn State defense won't allow QB Russell Wilson's crew to hang 50, but the PSU offense will end up putting too much pressure on their defense to give them a legitimate shot to win.  We see lots of short fields for the Badgers after Matt McGloin three-and-outs.  Penn State keeps it tight early, but too much Badger offense sends them to the Big Ten title game, 30-12.

There you have our three winners for Week 11...

As always, until next week...

Many Hundos.

LaMichael James and the high flying Oregon Ducks headlined our tenth week of picks and they rewarded us handsomely.  For the second straight year the Stanford defense couldn't handle he pace and speed of this Oregon offense.  Weekly Favorite Chip Kelly is a wizard and coaches the game the way The Weekly would if ever given the chance to coach football.  The fourth-and-two from the Stanford four yard line during the third quarter epitomizes everything Kelly has done in his three years at Oregon.  Leading 29-16, not only did Kelly not bat an eye at the decision to go for it on fourth down, the Ducks got to the line and ran a play within fifteen seconds.  The result was predictable; Stanford wasn't set and LaMichael James waltzed into the endzone for six.  Game over.  We need more forward thinkers in football.

In our other games, Texas A&M wilted in the second half again allowing Kansas State to come back from two double digit deficits to win in quadruple overtime 53-50.  K-State QB Collin Klein has turned into a poor man's Tim Tebow.  Already over 1,000 yards and 24 touchdowns -- more on him later.  Alabama wasn't quite hungover, but they didn't play a great game either.  The Bulldogs kept it just close enough to get us our third cover of the weekend.  We were going to take either Oklahoma State or Baylor, but chose Baylor because that Texas Tech offense scared us.  Bad decision.  Pokes won by 60 and Baylor squeaked out a one point win by pounding out three scores in the final 11 minutes of the game -- which frankly pisses us off even more.  They should have scored 60 on that Jayhawk "defense".   Last week gets us to 19-14-1 on the season.  Let's get to the picks...

Kansas State (+8) at Texas, 8pm
     Absurd line.  What has Texas done this year to lay eight points here?  They're 3-3 in conference and coming off a really ugly 17-5 loss at Mizzou last week where the Longhorns failed to score a touchdown for the first time since 2004.  This is not your typical uber-talented Texas squad.  To start, they have real issues at quarterback.  David Ash hasn't played up to expectations, he has yet to throw for 200 yards in any game, and who knows what you're getting out of little McCoy.  Wildcats QB Collin Klein is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender right now.  He's got 24 rushing touchdowns and has led his team to eight wins in a very good conference.  This team doesn't beat themselves and will, at the very least, be right in this game.  This is a moneyline special, we love the Wildcats to win this game.  K-State 34 - Texas 20.

California at Stanford (-17), 10:15pm
     Stanford has dominated all non-Oregon opponents this season, especially in Pac-12 play, and we expect them to pick up right where they left off before the Oregon game.  They couldn't get away with their lack of athleticism against the Ducks, but they'll be able to do damage against a team who's lost their last three road games.  The Bears have gotten beaten up at UCLA, Oregon and Washington, with their only impressive wins coming at home.  They clearly don't travel well and The Farm won't be a pleasant place to travel to this weekend.  Look for the Cardinal to dominate with their superior offensive line and take a big lead early and cruise late.  Stanford rolls 52-17.

Penn State at Ohio State (-6.5), 3:30pm
     The off the field issues didn't seem to catch up to Penn State at home last week and we can understand why.  The adrenaline of playing their last home game in Beaver Stadium combined with the drive to do something - anything - to lift the negative cloud that surrounded the entire school, in our opinion, could have lifted the Nittany Lions against Nebraska last week.  This week feels like a big let down spot.  We can see this being one of those games that Penn State just comes out flat against an opponent who's been getting better and better.  The Buckeyes, despite last week's road loss, have been playing some good football especially at home.  They beat Wisconsin, played Michigan State tough and they're 5-1 at the 'Shoe.  Freshman QB Braxton Miller is a dual-threat guy who's ability to make plays with his legs will be one of the differences in the game.  The Buckeyes will look to dominate on the ground with RB Dan Herron and we don't see this PSU offense finding enough points to keep it close.  Ohio State 24 - Penn State 10.

SMU at Houston (-20.5), 3:30pm
     In the past The Weekly has always had an affinity towards dominant offenses in non-AQ conferences (see: Hawai'i '07) but we haven't written about the Cougars at all.  We've definitely talked about QB Case Keenum in past seasons, but he's producing at an elite level right now.  Houston has pumped out over 70 points in two of their past three games, averaging 61 points over their past five games.  The Ponies have lost three out of their past four games and they're not capable of hanging with this offense.  SMU has a big problem with junior RB Zack Line out for the season.  Line is a big, bruising back (6'1", 235 lbs) who's averaging 5.9 yards per carry.  He's just the type of guy who would give a bad Houston run defense issues.  Without his presence, the Mustangs won't be able to keep Case Keenum off the field.  Cougars 59 - Ponies 21.

The Weekly will be attending our third game in four weeks, as we're in New Haven, CT for The Game.  Yale QB Patrick Witt became a story earlier in the week when he decided to skip his Rhodes Scholarship interview to play today's game against Harvard.  We'll be pulling for Witt to pull the upset over the Ivy League champs.  

As always, until next week...

Many Hundos.

We made an aggressive play and lost.  Remember last week when we talked about how you can be on the right side of a game and lose?  Well we have that feeling about last week's game.  Two missed field goals and a third attempt blocked in the first 17 minutes of the game are absolute killers, especially when you're moving the ball against a defense as good as LSU's.  But the play that eventually doomed the Tide came with just over eleven minutes left in regulation.  Alabama was putting another good drive together as a 24-yard rush by Trent Richardson bringing the ball down to the LSU 28 yard line.  The following play had WR Marquis Maze take the snap and float up a pass to TE Michael Williams.  A well thrown pass would have been an easy touchdown for the Tide, but since Maze's throw was short and fluttering, LSU S Eric Reid was able to close the gap and pick it off.  The Tide played better defense and moved the ball better than the Tigers did, unfortunately it wasn't enough to get the job done.

Last week's setback puts us at a pedestrian 16-13-1 on the season.  This looks like the week that will get us back on the right track.  On to the picks...

Oregon (+3.5) at Stanford, 7pm
     This is one that's been circled since Stanford QB Andrew Luck decided to come back to school for another year.  The Ducks come into this game with their healthiest lineup since the BCS National Championship game in January.  QB Darron Thomas seems to be fully recovered from a knee injury and star RB LaMichael James returned from his elbow injury last weekend.  This duo tore up the Cardinal defense to the tune of 52 points last year, with James accounting for 257 rushing yards all by himself.  Perhaps the biggest weakness of this Stanford team is that it lacks elite athletes in the secondary and the Oregon offense will have a huge advantage on the perimeter.  Chip Kelly is going to really put this secondary to the test; they'll need to be able to shed blocks and stay disciplined in the running game while having to make quick adjustments in coverage due to the pace of the Oregon offense.  Despite having a bruising ground game and the best player on the field in QB Andrew Luck, the Cardinal offense is too banged up to keep pace with the Ducks.  TE Zach Ertz is listed as doubtful and TE Levine Toilolo is listed as questionable.  With all the three TE sets that the Cardinal like to run, having one of these guys out would be a big blow.  QB Andrew Luck is the best player in America, but unfortunately he can't play defense.  Look for the Oregon offense to be too much, ruining Stanford's national title hopes yet again.  Ducks 42 - Cardinal 31.

Texas A&M at Kansas State (+5.5), 3:30pm
     The Aggies have yet to string four straight quarters of good football together this season, so we have a hard time seeing them doing it in Manhattan.  As we've written about before, Bill Snyder's Wildcats play disciplined football which, in turn, forces you to play disciplined football.  They run the ball with QB Collin Klein (19 rushing touchdowns this year) and RB John Hubert and their defense forces you into turnovers.  Sure, in the last two weeks that K-State defense has allowed 110 points but Oklahoma and Oklahoma State score on everyone.  We can toss those out here.  The bottom line is that the Aggies keep finding ways to lose.  Over and over again they've beaten themselves, which plays right into everything Kansas State wants you to do.  Look for the Wildcats to rush for 300 yards and dominate.  K-State gets back to their winning ways, 48-31.

Alabama at Mississippi State (+18), 7:45pm
     We've talked about how we think this is a truly special Alabama team, and we still believe it is, but this is an impossible spot.  To lose a game of such immense magnitude in such devastating fashion -- at home nonetheless -- and then be asked to go on the road and cover 18 points is insane.  The Bulldogs were a trendy sleeper in the SEC this year and have been disappointing but competitive against a brutal conference slate.  Their four losses are Auburn, LSU, South Carolina and Georgia, all of whom are currently ranked, and they've been in every game.  Look for the Bulldogs to come out and try to establish their running game with RBs Vick Ballard and LaDarius Perkins, who each average over 5.0 yards per carry this season.  Jumping on a possibly hungover Crimson Tide is the biggest key for Mississippi State here and the first quarter will be quite telling.  The 7:45pm start should energize the Starkville faithful but the Bulldogs will come up just short in this one.  Alabama 24 - Mississippi State 15

Baylor (-20.5) at Kansas, 2pm
     When you see a three touchdown road favorite your first thought isn't "that's a good idea".  But the Bears are really good at one thing: scoring points.  They're averaging 42 points and just under 600 yards of offense per game under the direction of QB, and Weekly Favorite, Robert Griffin III.  If you don't know how bad this Kansas defense is then you haven't followed the Big XII this season.  They've allowed over 45 points per game and that's including their cupcake non-conference schedule.  Look for the high octane Baylor offense to score a ton of points and play just enough defense.  Baylor 59 - Kansas 24.

We're due for a 4-0 weekend and we feel really good about this slate of games.  The Weekly is on site at the Cortaca Jug game in Ithaca, NY as the Ithaca Bombers host their arch-rival, the Cortland Red Dragons.  With a win, Ithaca would finish the season at 5-5 which would be their 41st straight season at or above .500.  Here's to hoping that the Bombers can get there...

Until next week...

Many Hundos.

Early season polls aren't worth the paper they're printed on.  In our opinion, polls are supposed to rank teams based on their accomplishments on the field.  That means who you've played and how you've fared in those games hold the most weight.  We care about what your team has done.  Only in instances where two team's accomplishments are too similar to differentiate will we take into account how we think a hypothetical game would play out. Since we're now three-quarters of the way through the season we have enough on-field results to put together a respectable poll.  We've always employed a Top 12 because there are about 120 teams in major college football and we believe that the elite teams are the top 10%.  If you're not elite, there's no need to waste time on where you're ranked.  Here's the first Top 12 of the 2011 season...

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Stanford
4. Alabama
5. Arkansas
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. Oklahoma
9. Clemson
10. Michigan State
11. Penn State
12. Wisconsin

We see this list in four tiers.  LSU is all by themselves in Tier 1.  Their wins against #7 Oregon and at #4 Alabama cannot be matched by anyone else at this point.  Sprinkle in wins against Auburn and at West Virginia and you have a resume worthy of the #1 ranking.

Tier 2 consisted of only Oklahoma State and Stanford.  Both teams have been as dominant as anyone could have asked of them, but Oklahoma State gets the nod here with more quality wins.  The Pokes's wins at Texas A&M, at Texas and at home against Kansas State outweigh the Cardinal's wins against Washington and at USC.  A Stanford win against Oregon this weekend could flip these two next week.  At the very least it would make it a very difficult decision.

The five schools from #4 through #8 made up the third tier and was by far the most difficult to evaluate.  Ultimately, Alabama didn't make it into Tier 2 because they lost at home.  Granted, it was against the current #1 team in our poll and that weighed heavily in our decision to put 'Bama on top of Tier 3, but the best of the best don't lose games at home.  The Tide also had the strongest wins of anyone in this tier by winning at Penn State and dismantling Arkansas at home.  The #5 Razorbacks might be our most aggressive ranking but their wins are quite solid (Texas A&M, Auburn and South Carolina) and their only loss came in Tuscaloosa.  Boise State doesn't have a tough enough schedule to currently crack our Top 5, they need Georgia to keep winning and/or the top four to endure a bad loss.  Oregon's wins over Arizona State and at Washington are not as solid as Oklahoma's wins at Florida State, vs. Texas and at Kansas State but the losses don't compare.  The Ducks lost a neutral site game against our current #1 and Oklahoma lost at home to Texas Tech, which is inexcusable.  The Sooners will have difficulty moving too far up this poll with that kind of loss on the resume.

Clemson headlines Tier 4 as the lone ACC school in our poll.  Michigan State gets a nod over fellow Big Ten rivals Penn State and Wisconsin on the strength of their wins over Michigan and Wisconsin.  Penn State has a chance to slide up the rankings in the coming weeks, but to date they don't have any wins that stick out.  The #12 team in this poll wasn't easy to find.  We value wins against quality opponents and teams outside the top ten by definition aren't loaded with quality wins.  We landed on Wisconsin since they have a Weekly Favorite in Russell Wilson and a solid win against Nebraska amidst their tough losses. 

The notables missing from our rankings are Virginia Tech and Houston.  Their 8-1 and 9-0 records are really nice, but these schools have nothing resembling a quality win.  Other schools looming for inclusion are Georgia, South Carolina, Texas and Kansas State.

Any review of our seventh week of picks has to start in East Lansing, Michigan.  Wisconsin jumped out to an early 14-0 lead on the host Spartans.  But a 23-point second quarter effort gave Michigan State a halftime lead.  Heisman Trophy candidate QB Russell Wilson would lead two fourth quarter drives to pull the Badgers back to even, looking for overtime.  The Weekly would have been quite content taking our 7.5 points into overtime, but lo and behold the Spartans wouldn't need overtime.  The Hail Mary connection from Kirk Cousins to Keith Nichol put another win in the books for The Weekly.

The Fightin' Dan Persas of Northwestern never really got the offense clicking en route to a 34-24 loss to Penn State.  The Wildcats only rushed for 2.5 yards per carry, while Silas Redd of Penn State had his way with the Northwestern defense going for 9.1 yards per carry on 18 touches.  Tulsa remained undefeated in Conference USA with a 38-20 win over Rice.  Golden Hurricane QB GJ Ginne threw for 318 yards and three scores in a game that was never as close as the final score indicates.  We have no interest in talking about how USC embarrassed Notre Dame.  The more things change at Notre Dame, the more they stay the same.

The 2-2 week puts us at 15-9-1 for the season.  We need to have a good Week 8 in order to make up for last weekend's mediocrity....

Oklahoma (-13) at Kansas State, 3:30pm
     The Sooners were exposed last week.  The secondary doesn't play with enough consistency to stop a team that can really throw the ball, like Texas Tech can.  That's the major wart on an otherwise powerful Oklahoma team.  If you can't take advantage of that weakness, you're not going to beat Oklahoma.  Kansas State is not built to take advantage of this weakness.  They don't throw the ball well enough, they can't create enough pressure on Oklahoma QB Landry Jones to disrupt his timing and they're going to be athletically out-classed all over the field.  Look for the Sooners to jump out early, forcing the Wildcats to play the type of game that they'd like to avoid.  Sooners get back on track in a big way, 45-17.

North Carolina State (+18.5) at Florida State, 
     Florida State has gotten fat the past few weeks against some of the patsies of the ACC, but NC State isn't one of those patsies.  The Wolfpack have had an up-and-down season, but the emergence of junior RB James Washington has been the key to their recent success.  Washington is averaging 4.7 yards per carry in the past three games and this Seminole defense is vulnerable to a good running game.  Look for Washington to help QB Mike Glennon keep the Pack in this game for 60 minutes.  It's asking a lot of this team to win in Tallahassee, but we don't see the 'Noles running away with this one.  FSU, 31-21.

Arkansas (-9) at Vanderbilt, 12:21pm
     This Razorback offense is scary.  QB Tyler Wilson picked up right where Ryan Mallett left off in 2010.  We don't see any way that the Commodores can keep up offensively here.  The Vandy defense is respectable, it might even be pretty good, but Arkansas's air attack will eventually wear them out.  They won't be able to contain them for four quarters.  We don't see this being a laugher, but the score might look worse than the game.  Arkansas 34 - Vanderbilt 15.

Kansas at Texas, Over 63.5, 7pm
     This is gonna be short and sweet -- the Jayhawks have given up 353 points this season.  That's 50.4 per game and that's including a soft non-conference schedule.  In their five games against BCS competition, they've given up 57 points per game.  There's no reason to believe that there is competence in sight for this defense.  Texas might go over the number themselves.  Texas, 58-31.

Shorter article today because The Weekly is on site in Knoxville, Tennessee for tomorrow night's game between the Vols and the South Carolina Gamecocks.  We should have a good post next week about the experience...

As always, until next week...

Many Hundos.

Last week's 2-1 puts us at 13-7-1 for the season, right at 65%.  We keep that pace up and we'll have a lot of happy readers...

For a full week six recap, see our "Rabbit Every Monday" column below...

On to the picks for our lucky sevens edition...

Penn State at Northwestern (+4), 7pm
     This one stinks like a trap.  You can smell it from 2,500 miles away.  Vegas is begging you to take Penn State and when you see that you want to be on the other side.  The bookmakers definitely have opinions of their own on these games and try to tempt bettors with enticing lines like this one.  We've raved about this Penn State defense, but at some point QB Matt McGloin is going to have to make some plays for them to continue winning Big Ten games.  The Penn State offense has been pretty tough to watch all year, and the loss of starting WR Derek Moye to a broken foot won't be helping their cause.  Northwestern QB Dan Persa is primed to put some points on the board and the this Penn State offense won't be able to keep pace.  Northwestern keeps their season alive with the upset, 28-17.

Tulsa (-10.5) at Rice, 7pm
     We know that people don't like when we go to the obscure parts of the board to pick games, but this is an interesting one.  Tulsa is actually good, at least Conference USA good.  They're 3-3 but did you see their three losses?  How about at Oklahoma, vs. Oklahoma State and at Boise State.  Sure they got beat up in all three games, but despite playing three of their games against the top 5 teams in America they're still averaging just under 30 points per game.  Rice can't stop a nosebleed and don't expect them to start tomorrow.  Tulsa stays undefeated in conference, 42-21.

Southern Cal at Notre Dame (-9), 7:30pm
    The Irish are a top 10 team in disguise.  Their two early season losses were a factor of being careless with the football, not a factor of their talent.  Since their losses to South Florida and Michigan the Irish offense has been on point.  The young Trojan secondary  will have big issues stopping the Notre Dame passing game.  On second thought, this whole Trojan team is young.  Do they even start any juniors or seniors?  As long as Notre Dame QB can keep the turnovers to a minimum, it would be tough to see the Irish not putting up 30+ points on the board.  The USC offense, led by QB Matt Barkley and WR Robert Woods, comes into the game a little banged up.  We're still not sure whether their battering ram RB Marc Tyler is going to play, which would be a big blow.  Look for both teams to be able to score, but the Irish are the only ones capable of making a defensive stop.  Irish make it two in a row over their rival, 38-21.

Wisconsin at Michigan State (+7.5), 8pm
     Wisconsin has turned into something of a Weekly Favorite.  We've found that every time they're on TV, we stop and check it out.  There's something about this team that is so interesting and, more importantly, likable.  It's something that you just can't put your finger on.  Maybe it's QB Russell Wilson and how he graduated in three years from NC State and is trying to finish his college career with a title.  Maybe it's head coach Bret Bielema and his refreshing honesty.  Maybe it's the iconic stadium play in at Camp Randall.  Despite all those things, we think that the Spartans are a good play.  Amazingly, this is the first game that the Badgers will be playing outside of Camp Randall.  That sounds impossible, and it probably says more about how messed up big-time college football scheduling is than anything else, but it's true.  Who knows how they're going to react on the road, especially against a team as good as Michigan State.  The Spartans can really play defense, OLB Denicos Allen already has 4.5 sacks and he's going to be a key to the game.  If he can pressure Wilson and help force a mistake the Michigan State cornerbacks will be able to take advantage.  Offensively, the Spartans will be able to exploit the Badgers soft defensive line, running the ball effectively with Edwin Baker and Le'Veon Bell.  That will allow QB Kirk Cousins enough breathing room to keep his team in the game.  This is going to be a fun one and we can definitely see the upset, but we'll play it safe and take the Badgers, 34-33.

Another one in the books.... Check back on Monday for our weekend recap and on Wednesday for our first Top 12 of the season... 

Until next time...

Many Hundos.

There's something satisfying about watching a team that knows exactly who they are.  The Kansas State Wildcats, led by 72-year old Bill Snyder, know exactly who they are.  In a conference where teams have been playing a glorified version of flag football for years, the Wildcats are winning games with ball control, winning the turnover battle and, most importantly, execution.  K-State has actually been out-gained this season (giving up 345 yards per game; gaining 336 yards per game), yet stand at 6-0 (3-0 Big XII).  During Saturday's win at Texas Tech, the Red Raiders ran 31 more plays than Snyder's Wildcats but the 'Cats led time of possession by over seven minutes; a testament to how Snyder wants to play the game by controlling the ball.  This team still shouldn't be considered a Big XII title contender, let a lone a national title contender, but they're a very good team with a style that may be able to put a scare into the conference's big guns.

Kansas State helped steer us back in the right direction, leading us to a 2-1 week.  A shootout broke out in Happy Valley, at least according to Penn State standards, as the Nittany Lions held on for a 23-18 victory over Purdue.  As you'd expect there were some wacky events that landed us at 23-18.  Purdue missed an extra point and a subsequent 2-point conversion that helped our cause in a major way.

Shame on us for picking Georgia Tech for the second straight week.  Weekly Favorite and Tech head coach Paul Johnson let us down.  Apparently the Yellow Jacket's offense isn't nearly as potent at we thought they were.  It's one thing not to cover on the road at Maryland or Virginia, but to actually lose to the Zimas is unforgivable.  This is definitely a "Cross Them off Your List of Teams to Wager on" game. 

Other quick notes from around the country:  Oklahoma's Ryan Broyles is the new NCAA all-time leader in receptions with 326.  Didn't that kind of fly under the radar?...  Thanks to a scheduling quirk, Weekly Favorite Oklahoma State became the first team to beat Texas in Austin in back-to-back seasons since Oklahoma did it in 1910 and 1911...  We've written about Clemson's Sammy Watkins already, but his school record 345 all-purpose yards should open your eyes.  The Tigers needed every one of them to get past Maryland...  Don't look now, but Oregon is slowly creeping back into the national title hunt.  If we end up with a couple of one loss teams near the top, the Ducks could be right there...  On the other hand can someone play LSU, 'Bama, Wisconsin, Oklahoma or Stanford close?  The five won by a total score of 240-52 and it didn't even seem remotely strange...

Here are the games we're looking forward to watching during Week 8:  Auburn at LSU, Washington at Stanford, Wisconsin at Michigan State, Air Force at Boise State and North Carolina at Clemson.  

The first week of picks on the new site did not go as we had hoped.  Our first loss came down on the Bayou, as LSU looked dominant -- again -- whooping Florida, 41-11.  The LSU defense ruled the day, as they seem to every week, holding the Gators to just 213 total yards and forcing a pair of turnovers.  Frankly, the Gators were lucky it wasn't worse.  Nebraska played just poorly enough during the first half that their second half comeback didn't do anything except piss us off even more.  The Huskers found themselves down 27-6 following a Carlos Hyde one-yard touchdown run with just under 11 minutes left in the third quarter.  From there on it was all Cornhuskers, outscoring the Buckeyes 28-0 and giving them their first Big Ten win.  Maybe next time they'll play a full 60 minutes for us.  We got backdoored in our third loss of the day, with Maryland scoring two fourth quarter touchdowns to turn a 21-3 Georgia Tech lead into a 21-16 final.  The Tech offense sputtered late in the game, allowing the Terps to make a game out of it.  Our Red River Shootout (we don't care for the new, more politically correct "Red River Rivalry" moniker) pick was a layup.  The Sooners came out guns a blazing and never looked back after holding a 34-10 halftime lead.  The Longhorns had no answers for Oklahoma WRs Ryan Broyles, Kenny Stills and Jaz Reynolds who combined for 20 catches, 265 yards and three touchdowns.  The 1-3 week is disappointing, but there's no time to sulk.  On to the Week 6 picks...

Georgia Tech (-7) at Virginia, 3:30pm
     Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice... How does that one end?  We're not sure and we don't think it'll matter.  Despite last week's showing, the Yellow Jackets can score and score and score and the Cavaliers can't.  Virginia has three wins this year and none of them are particularly impressive.  Last week the Cavs were taken to overtime by Idaho, at home.  There's a history of option based teams having success against the UVa defense, Georgia Tech has score 30+ in each of their last two meetings. On the other side of the ball, Virginia is running a two-quarterback offense which, as we all know, is a zero-quarterback offense.  Look for the Ramblin' Wreck to get on track early and roll, 41-17.

Purdue at Penn State, Under 41.5, noon
     Unders are never a sexy pick, but has anyone watched Penn State recently?  They play excellent defense.  It's refreshingly sound and fundamental -- a pleasure for real football fans everywhere.  Unfortunately, the Nittany Lion offense is unwatchable.  The Boilermakers don't have nearly enough playmakers to put points on the board against this defense and the Nittany Lions' offense can't get out of their own way.  Penn State 21 - Purdue 7.

Kansas State (+3.5) at Texas Tech, 7pm
     We're starting to come around on this Kansas State team.  They play punch-you-in-the-mouth defense and can run the ball with sophomore RB John Huber and QB Collin Klein.  With 115 carries already Klein, a quarterback, leads the Big XII in rushing attempts.  The Wildcats are averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground and over 35 minutes in time of possession.  Meanwhile, Texas Tech head coach Tommy Tubberville said this week, "we ain't stopped (the run) all year."  Well said coach.  The Red Raiders have allowed 224 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry on the ground.  Kansas State is going to keep the ball in the hands of Klein and Huber 50 or more times, eating up clock and keeping Texas Tech's potent offense off the field.  Look for the Red Raiders to struggle on the ground with RB Eric Stephens out for the season.  The Wildcats keep up their winning ways, 34-28.

This is a really tough slate of games.  We would have loved to have picked another game or two considering last week's disaster, but there's not a whole lot of value out there.

As always, until next week...

Many Hundos.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys don't have an illustrious history.  In fact, outside of Barry Sanders' 1988 Heisman Trophy, they seem to lack any sort of historical relevance in terms of national competitiveness.  They haven't won a share of a conference title since being co-champions of the Big Eight in 1976 and their last outright conference title came back in 1948 when they were still a part of the Missouri Valley Conference.  The Cowboys own more zero win seasons (four; although three of those came before 1921) than undefeated seasons (one).  In that lone undefeated season of 1945, the Pokes still only managed to finish 5th in the final AP poll; that still stands as OSU's highest final ranking ever.

So why does any of this matter today?  In terms of how good today's Cowboys are -- it doesn't.  But history clearly isn't on their side and some of that is reflected in their odds to win the BCS National Championship.  The Pokes are currently sitting at +1200 to win it all, and The Weekly is scooping some of that up.  Oklahoma State doesn't have the program prestige of the other National Championship favorites like LSU, Alabama and rival Oklahoma.  They don't have the #1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft like Stanford does or the current resume to match Wisconsin.  But what they do have is the best wide receiver in America, an offense that racks up points and the perfect conference to take them to New Orleans.

Their schedule is not a cakewalk.  The games that scare us the most are Baylor and at Texas Tech, but we can certainly envision this team going 11-0 into their annual Bedlam game with in-state rival Oklahoma.  Considering that there is no Big XII title game anymore, this game would be the de facto championship game.  With the BCS computers loving the Big XII (Oklahoma State is currently 4th in this BCS projection), we're thinking that this game will produce one of the teams in the championship game.  If we're left with an undefeated SEC team, an undefeated Big Ten team, an undefeated Boise State and an undefeated Big XII team -- we'll all be watching another SEC-Big XII title game.

Nobody can sit here and tell you who is going to win the national championship with any certainty -- but with this team, that schedule and 12-1 odds?  We'll take a shot...

1 unit on Oklahoma State to win the BCS National Championship (+1200)

CBS Sports, among other news outlets, is reporting that Florida QB Jeff Driskel will not start today at LSU.  Driskel's high ankle sprain is apparently worse than previously thought and the start will go to highly touted freshman Jacoby Brissett.  Brissett is a true freshman out of Dwyer (FL) HS and much like Driskel is a physical specimen, standing 6'4", 225 pounds.  He came to Florida as the #3 ranked dual-threat quarterback recruit in America.

This isn't great news for the Gators, but it's not necessarily bad news either.  Brissett has experience running the pro-style offense that offensive coordinator Charlie Weis wants to run.  Earlier in the week Weis was quoted saying, "The only reason why he’s [Brissett] not been a factor is because he came here in the summertime and he’s had to play catch-up. That’s the only thing that’s kept him from being the second guy in.” 

Losing Brantley was the big blow for the Gators.  The difference between Brissett and Driskel shouldn't be great.  Weis's gameplan has already factored in the fact they'll be playing with a green quarterback.  The fact that it's Brissett and not Driskel isn't a huge concern.

The first Saturday of October was a separation Saturday for The Weekly.  With three wins in four games, we're now 10-3 on the season and ready to go for the jugular on the 2011 season.  In what we thought was the most important outcome of the day, Russell Wilson and Wisconsin made a huge statement coming out and pounding Nebraska 48-17 in Madison.  Wisconsin is officially a national title contender and Wilson is near the top of any Heisman list right now.  They are flying high right now.  Our second winner saw Alabama go into The Swamp and trail 7-0 early on, only to outscore the Gators 38-3 the rest of the way.  'Bama RB Trent Richardson went off for 181 yards on 29 carries.  He's going to be something special at the next level.  To add to the Gators' woes, senior QB John Brantley went down with a leg injury that's going to keep him out of action this week against LSU -- more on that later.  Clemson finally did us right!  They went into Lane Stadium and beat up Virginia Tech, perfectly filling in our Week 4 upset special and leaving no doubt that they're the team to beat in the ACC.  Speaking of Clemson, Texas A&M has already locked up the 2011 "Clemson of the Year" award with their last two performances.  The Aggies lead 35-17 at halftime, amassing over 400 yards of offense in the process.  Yep, 35 points and 400 yards of offense in the first hafl... and they lost!  They made Hogs QB Tyler Wilson look like Sammy Baugh, throwing for 510 yards and three touchdowns.  We'll cross the Aggies off our list of bettable (that's a real word... at least in our world it is) teams.  Let's get to the picks...

Florida (+13.5) at LSU, 3:30pm
     This is a historic line in a way.  Florida has only been a 12 or more point dog once in the past 15 seasons.  The Gators have freshman QB Jeff Driskel stepping in for injured starter Jeff Brantley.  Now Driskel is a freshman, but you wouldn't know it by looking at him.  He's blessed with all the physical tools you could ask for from your quarterback, but he certainly looked lost last week against Alabama.  We think that a week of snaps with the first team, but more importantly, having a game plan designed knowing that he's the starter is going to pay big dividends.  The Gators defense is fast and athletic, but got worn out by Trent Richardson last week.  The Tigers don't have that same kind of offensive ability and Florida's D should be able to keep this one a game.  Les Miles is 1-13 against the spread as a double-digit favorite vs. SEC opponents.  Margin of victory is irrelevant to SEC teams because if you win the conference you're going to the National Championship.  This has made SEC dogs a good play and the Gators are one of those good plays.  Tigers 21 - Gators 13.

Texas vs. Oklahoma (-11), The Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas, noon
     Texas is off to a somewhat surprising 4-0 start, climbing up the rankings all the way to number 11.  There is no way this is the 11th best team in America.  The Longhorns have been able to out-athlete all four of their opponents this year:  Rice, BYU, UCLA and Iowa State.  They'll be playing a couple of young quarterbacks in David Ash and Case McCoy, both are potential stars.  Oklahoma is going to show these young guys exotic looks to force the rookies into mistakes.  The Sooners defense can be beaten with big plays, but you need to have a veteran quarterback and serious talent on the outside -- Texas doesn't have it.  Look for the balance and tempo of the Sooner offense to be the key.  They won't make mistakes and, in turn, will win the turnover battle.  Landry Jones keeps marching towards the New York Athletic Club in December as the Sooners roll and keep hold of the Golden Hat, 38-17.

Ohio State at Nebraska (-10.5), 8pm
     Oh how the mighty have fallen.  It's amazing to see the Buckeyes in this situation.  A year ago, this looked like it was going to be the marquee match up for the new Big Ten -  the crown jewel of the expansion.  Now it's become little more than a footnote on the schedule.  The Buckeyes can't move the football.  They're 91st in the country in points per game, 109th in total yards per game and 107th in passing yards per game.  Those numbers were with starting WR Verlon Reed, who is now out for the season with torn knee ligament.  The Ohio State defense has been pretty solid, but they need to be perfect on every down considering what they have on the offensive side of the ball.  Much maligned Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez has an opportunity to get back on track here and we think this is a perfect opportunity.  He won't be playing from behind so the Cornhuskers can keep him in his comfort zone.  Even if the Ohio State defense keeps them in the game for the first half, the Cornhuskers will be able to pull away and make this a laugher.  Nebraska 28-7.

Maryland at Georgia Tech (-15), noon
     Remember when people said that Paul Johnson's offense wouldn't work in the ACC?  Remember when The Weekly scoffed at that idea?  Well, it seems like the ACC can't figure out Paul Johnson's offense, as they lead the nation with 51.6 points per game and 378 rush yards per game.  Maryland isn't prepared to slow down this offense.  They gave up 38 points to Temple two weeks ago.  The Yellow Jackets are going to have a field day against this defense.  Ramblin' Wreck keeps rolling, 63-24.

The first fresh post on our website is pretty exciting.  Hopefully we can get the site off to a grand start with four wins...

As always, until next week...

Many Hundos.

We kept the good times rolling with a third straight winning week.  LSU looks like they may be the best team in America, blowing out another legitimate top 25 team on the road.  They never even let the Mountaineers into the game.  Even though West Virginia QB Geno Smith threw for over 450 yards, the win convinced the AP pollsters to bump the Bayou Bengals up to the #1 spot.  Are they the best team?  Maybe.  Do they deserve to be #1?  Definitely.  We predicted a 57-31 Oregon win, so we'll take 56-28.  Our lone loss of the weekend came at Clemson, where a banged up Seminoles squad couldn't complete a 4th quarter comeback.  Is Clemson for real?  We'll find our for sure today when they travel to Blacksburg.  On to the picks, where we might be on some sides that'll surprise you... 

Click here for our 2011 win/loss statistics...

Alabama (-3.5) at Florida, 8pm
     Depending on your book, you may be seeing this line at 4.  Either way it's a play on the Tide.  Will Muschamp has done a nice job in his first season at Florida.  He's provided much needed stability and he'll restock the cupboard there pretty quickly.  Unfortunately, he simply doesn't have the horses to find a win against the toughest defense in the country.  QB Jeff Brantley is still settling into Charlie Weis's offensive scheme, but that's not the Gators biggest problem.  Florida has some of the fastest running backs in the country, but they don't have any way to stretch the field.  The Gators have relied on breaking off huge runs from speedsters Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps.  They'll be hard pressed to find those kinds of long runs today against this hard-nosed linebacking crew and strong run support from the secondary.  The Tide can key on the run game, because the Gators don't have any receivers who can make the Tide pay for selling out on the run.  As usual, Trent Richardson will pace the offense and score enough for this defense. Tide rolls 24-9.

Texas A&M (-2.5) vs Arkansas, Arlington, Texas, noon
     Both teams are coming off losses, but they're different types of losses.  The Razorbacks got pummeled by the Crimson Tide last week, and much like our play against Arizona following a game with Stanford, fading teams coming off a war with Alabama is a good idea.  The Aggies squandered a lead to a very explosive Oklahoma State squad, which was a disappointment, but nothing to hang your head about.  They should be physically prepared for this game.  Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill should be able to put up some nice numbers through the air against a depleted pass rush.  Arkansas will be without key pass rushers DE Tenarius Wright and Jake Bequette.  Remember, this is a defense that allowed Troy to hang 373 yards on it.  Aggies bounce back, 38-24.

Clemson (+7) at Virginia Tech, 6pm
     Yup, we're picking Clemson.  It doesn't make us feel comfortable, but they look like the real deal right?  Of course, when Clemson starts looking like the real deal that's when they pull the rug out from under you.  But this is different.  Last week should have been that "pull the rug out" game, but it wasn't.  QB Tajh Boyd is nothing short of excellent, throwing 13 touchdowns and just one interception.  Freshman WR Sammy Watkins has emerged as the best freshman in America and Boyd has one of the best pass catching tight ends in the game in sophomore Dwayne Allen.  Clemson has been able to stay balanced on offense which is a key against an aggressive Bud Foster-coached defense.  The Hokies have not been tested; they're talented but unproven.  Their running backs won't be able to play video game football and simply use their speed to gain the edge to break off big gains like they've been able to to against Appalachian State, East Carolina, Arkansas State and Marshall.  Clemson vaults themselves into the top 10 with their biggest win in years, 28-17.

Nebraska at Wisconsin (-10), 8pm
     This is the first test for both teams, but the Badgers have been more impressive in their non-conference schedule.  QB Russell Wilson is having his finest season in college football in his first year at Wisconsin.  He'll be facing a defense that has been wildly inconsistent, despite great hype.  Wisconsin offensive coordinator Paul Chryst has been brilliant at keeping defenses off balance with his different formations and personnel packages, something that The Weekly thinks is a huge advantage for an offense who can successfully employ a multitude of formations.  This forces the defense to communicate and adjust with efficiency.  Wilson has shown the ability to get the ball to his playmakers with consistently, whereas his Nebraska counterpart QB Taylor Martinez has not shown the same ability.  Look for Martinez to make a couple of major mistakes that doom the Huskers in their inaugural Big Ten opener.  Badgers jump around, 44-28.

It's a great day of games, hope you enjoy them as much as we know we will.

As always, until next week...

Many Hundos.

Three up, three down in Week 2.  Our first perfect week of the season sets us up for a big 2011 season.  West Virginia got the day started by doing what they always do -- be wildly inconsistent.  After jumping out to a 27-10 first half lead, the Mountaineers had to hang and stop the Terps on their final possession to hold onto the victory.  With their backs against an 0-3 wall, Notre Dame pumped Michigan State in impressive fashion.  The Irish still had some turnover issues, but that looked more like the Notre Dame we expected to see in 2011.  They might still be undervalued in the marketplace.  In the nightcap, and the day's marquee game, Oklahoma grinded out a solid victory in Tallahassee.  Admittedly, the 'Noles looked like the Florida State that we haven't seen in a decade.  They're a program headed back in the right direction.

Florida State (+2.5) at Clemson, 3:30pm
     When The Weekly played our own little game of "Guess The Lines" this week, we figured that the 'Noles would be a small favorite.  This line looks pretty reactionary.  Florida State just lost, but played well against the top team in America.  Clemson just won, but beat a team that The Weekly thinks won't make a bowl game.  We think that Clemson QB Tajh Boyd is the real deal, but this Florida State front seven can really get after the quarterback.  The Tigers gave up seven sacks in their first two games and we expect so see a lot of pressure from Mark Stoops's bunch today.  With FSU QB EJ Manuel banged up but expected to play, look for the 'Noles to get the ground game going against a suspect run defense.  RBs Ty Jones and Chris Thompson will each be getting touches and we see them setting the tone for the Florida State offense.  Look for Boyd to be under siege and force a couple of costly mistakes that the Tigers won't be able to recover from.  Seminoles 28-23.

LSU (-5.5) at West Virginia, 8pm
     Simply put: this is not a good match up for West Virginia.  The LSU defense is something straight out of a Hollywood movie.  Their secondary flies all over the field, they have five (FIVE!) NFL caliber defensive backs.  They can play eight deep on the defensive line.  They've given up just two completions on throws of over 15 yards this season.  This lethal combination of coverage and pressure will be a nightmare for a Mountaineers squad whose biggest weakness looks to be their offensive line.  West Virginia QB Geno Smith is the best passer that the Tigers have seen, but Smith doesn't have the tools to win this game.  Everyone keeps pining about the atmosphere in Morgantown this weekend.  The Weekly has personally been to Mountaineer Stadium and there's no question that the people there are nuts and the crowd will be crazy for that 8pm start.  But let's be honest here, do you think that LSU -- a team that plays in SEC cathedrals every week -- will be phased by a 60,000 seat chapel?  Nope.  Bayou Bengals 26 - Mountaineers 15.

Oregon (-15.5) at Arizona, 10:15pm
     The Ducks are still a bit undervalued after their opening week struggles against the aforementioned LSU defense that could probably make the Patriots look bad.  Since that opening game in Dallas, they've scored 125 points in two games.  Sure it's been against Nevada and Missouri State, but it's 125 points nonetheless.  The Wildcats haven't been able to stop a nosebleed in 2011, allowing 37 points in each of their past two games against Oklahoma State and Stanford.  We love fading teams a week after playing Stanford because that team punches you in the mouth and the effects can carry over.  This is not a good week to be worn out.  Look for a beat up Arizona defense chasing around Darron Thomas and LaMichael James all day as the Ducks hang half-a-hundred.  Oregon 57-28.

Three more road teams...  We never like having too many road teams, but our numbers speak for themselves thus far.

As always, until next week...

Many Hundos.

Interestingly, each book graded the game differently.  Caesars paid out on the final score of 17-14, thus paying out Utah bets.  According to Caesars they don't acknowledge protested game outcomes, or in this case, scoring decision changes two hours later.  The Hilton got hammered, initially paying out Utah bets then stopping and only paying USC bets.  Point of the matter is that each book graded the game differently according to their house rules.  We're going to continue to score it as a push, but it is interesting to note that the same game can be paid out differently depending on where you placed your wager.  

The moral of this story:  Know your house rules!  

Our first picks of the year got off to a wacky start.  Mississippi State played a bad game but still had a shot to force overtime with eight seconds left and the ball on the Auburn goal line.  Instead of throwing, the Bulldogs tried to power it in, despite having no timeouts, and came up inches short.  We still think Auburn is going to struggle to get to a bowl this year.  The Ol' Ball Coach and his Gamecocks won a wild one with Georgia that saw 39 points scored in the fourth quarter alone.  Don't they play defense in the SEC?  The two teams combined for over 800 yards of total offense.  In one of the strangest endings to a game that The Weekly has ever seen, USC topped Utah 23-14.  As the Trojans blocked what would have been a game tying field goal and returned it for a touchdown as time expired.  But as college football's celebration rules have evolved from annoying to retarded, the officials threw a flag and took the touchdown away for a 17-14 final.  But wait, there's more!  Two hours later the touchdown was reinstated and we took a backdoor push of a lifetime.  In the only game that went smoothly, Alabama's defense stifled Penn State, allowing only 251 yards and not giving up a touchdown over the first 58 minutes.  That touchdown put us up near the number, but the under was never truly threatened.  On to the picks...

Michigan State at Notre Dame (-5), 3:30pm
     The Irish come into this game with an ugly 0-2 mark that makes you think of Notre Dame's disastrous 2007 squad.  Fear not Notre Dame fans, this is NOT the 2007 Irish.  This team has weapons and ability -- they've racked up over 1,000 yards of offense in their first two games.  Unfortunately for the Irish they haven't been able to avoid turnovers, already ten of them, and we all know that's where games are won and lost.  The Michigan State secondary is going to have their hands full with an explosive wide receiver corps.  Michael Floyd, Jersey product Theo Riddick and TJ Jones should be able to exploit a weak group and help Tommy Rees pick apart this Spartan secondary.  The Irish will find a way to protect the ball better today and hang five scores on the board on their way to their first win of the year, 38-27.

Oklahoma (-3) at Florida State, 8pm
     Tempo.  That's the key to tonight's marquee match up in Tallahassee.  Oklahoma puts teams away with a blistering pace, snapping the ball every 10-12 seconds.  Last season the Seminoles just simply could not hang with the Sooners' tempo.  This pace should help the Sooners slow down a Florida State front four that led the nation in 2010 with 46 sacks.  QB Landry Jones has the most dangerous wide receivers in the nation in Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills, a group that torched the 'Noles Cover 3 and quarters looks last season.  Florida State QB EJ Manuel is going to have to be perfect in order for FSU to pull off this upset and we feel pretty good betting against EJ Manuel and perfection.  Look for Jones to be methodical, hitting lots of intermediate routes, while Manuel forces a couple throws turning into easy Oklahoma points.  Sooners 31-17.

West Virginia (+1) at Maryland, noon
     This looks like kind of a strange line.  Wouldn't you think that the Mountaineers would be a favorite here?  Maryland has suspended their top two receivers Quintin McCree and Ronnie Tyler indefinitely for a violation of team rules and I don't think they're the better team to begin with.  West Virginia got off to a slow start last week, actually falling behind 12-10 to Norfolk State at halfime before exploding for 45 unanswered second half points.  QB Geno Smith, who doesn't have Heisman buzz yet but we think he'll get some, should be able to dominate a weak Maryland secondary (that's clearly this week's theme).  New Terps coach Randy Edsall is just 1-6 all-time against the Mountaineers and look for his woes to continue.  West Virginia 42-21.

We're off to a good start and three winners this week would make it a great start...

As always, till next week...

Many Hundos.

Saying that the college football off-season was a disaster is not only unsurprising, but also an understatement.  The sport really topped itself this off-season with one of the game's most prestigious coaches being fired thanks to a scandal and subsequent cover up, Miami returning back to its rich heritage of NCAA violations and the seemingly perpetual game of conference dominoes continuing.  We're one week into the season we still can't get away from conference dominoes, as Texas A&M is trying to leave the Big XII for the SEC.  Baylor's pending "legal action" against Texas A&M is hysterical.  Apparently they forgot that they had no problem leaving SMU, Houston, Rice and TCU behind when they entered the Big XII in 1996.  

Thankfully we don't have to deal with the off-season minutiae here since we're in the business of picking winners.  The 2010 wasn't the "easy money" that someone told us it would be, but it can be considered a mild success nonetheless.  Winning games at at 53% clip is nothing to get too excited about, but nobody is complaining either.  We maintain our lofty but attainable goal of 60% winners.  Let's get the picks going...

Mississippi State (-5.5) at Auburn, 12:21pm
     Last year The Weekly was one of the first to champion how special Cam Newton's talents were (Volume VI, Issue III), but it's difficult to remember a defending National Champion who's as bad as Auburn is.  Today, the more you watch and learn about the Tigers, the more you figure out that last year was a two-man show and neither man is back on the Plains in 2011.  What Utah State did to the Tigers last week is no fluke.  They pounded Auburn on the ground to the tune of 227 yards.  Make sure you caught that.  Utah State ran for 227 yards on Auburn -- in one game.  Mississippi State is going to come to Auburn with wildly better tools than Utah State did.  Senior RB Vick Ballard is a beast and look for the Bulldogs to pound away at the Tigers all day long.  There's also going to be a bit of a hidden element to every one of Auburn's SEC games this year.  There's a sentiment around the league that Auburn bought their national championship last year.  It's difficult to determine whether that's fair or not, but the sentiment is very real.  Despite the Tigers being down, there are a lot of teams that can't wait to get on the field and take some measure of revenge.  Look for Mississippi State to jump out to an early lead and then ride Ballard and the punishing running game as they cruise to a 34-20 win.

South Carolina (-2.5) at Georgia, 4:30pm
     Over the past couple of seasons the Bulldogs staff has gotten a reputation that you don't want your team having: 10-win talent, 10-cent coaching.  Lack of discipline, vanilla offensive schemes and a lack of successful in-game adjustments have doomed Georgia.  Watching their de facto home game against Boise State last week gave us a stark example of how far behind the Dawgs' staff really is.  The talent that Georgia had on the field was far, far superior to that of Boise State yet the Broncos completely dominated the game from start to finish.  As the Boise State coaching staff was putting on a typically brilliant offensive display during the second half -- mixing up personnel packages, formations and speeding up the pace -- the Bulldogs defense looked blindsided.  The 35-21 final score wasn't indicative of the game; it wasn't that close.  The offensive tools that the Gamecocks are bringing with them Between the Hedges today are scary.  Last year's match up was RB Marcus Lattimore's coming out party, as he rushed for 182 yards and a couple of scores.  The Gamecocks bring a big, physical receiving corps in against a talented, but not big, Bulldog secondary.  Look for embattled USC QB Stephen Garcia to spread the field, hit a lot of different targets and make some plays with his legs to lead South Carolina to their first back-to-back wins over Georgia since 2000-2001.  South Carolina 37-24

Alabama at Penn State, under 42, 3:30pm
     It's difficult for us to see a way how Penn State wins this game, but laying nine-and-a-half points against Penn State in Happy Valley is not a good idea.  This is mostly a play on the vaunted 'Bama defense and all around shaky quarterback play.  The Crimson Tide defense is not nearly as star-studded as past years but it may be the deepest and most talented.  Just as a high school team would be better off with 20 Division III caliber players than three Division I caliber players, this Alabama unit doesn't boast the big names but have eight players ranked in the ESPN's latest top 150 NFL draft prospects.  That's not good news for a Penn State offense that's really unsettled at quarterback and a couple receivers who are having issues holding onto the football.  Let's not forget that Nick Saban's quarterback situation is nothing pretty either.  Throw in a good chance of thunderstorms in central Pennsylvania this afternoon and this could be a real struggle.  Look for 'Bama RB Trent Richardson to be the difference today as Alabama slugs out a 19-6 win.

Utah (+9) at Southern Cal, 7:30pm
     The inaugural game of the Pac-12 is an interesting one.  Utah is finally getting its opportunity to wrestle with the big boys and the odds makers aren't giving them a whole lot of respect.  Trojan QB Matt Barkley has some legitimate weapons on the perimeter, especially in sophomore WR Robert Woods.  But the Southern Cal offensive line is very inexperienced, having to replace four starters from last year's squad.  Having sent multiple defensive linemen to the NFL, you can tell that Utah's primary annual recruiting emphasis is on the defensive line.  The Utes return five d-linemen with starting experience and should be able to disrupt Barkley.  If USC brings the same running game that they did last week against Minnesota, it's going to be a long day.  The Utes bring experience back at the quarterback position in junior Jordan Wynn, but are the only FBS team to return zero rushing yards from their running backs.  JUCO transfer John White is supposed to be excellent and he'll get a chance to shine right away.  The Trojans have been bad at home over the past few seasons, having gone 3-10 ATS during that stretch.  Utah is going to control the line of scrimmage and as long as Wynn can protect the football the Utes will be able to pull off the upset and win their first game as a Pac-12 member.  Moneyline special: Utah 24-USC 23.

It's great to be back for the seventh year of College Football Weekly.  I hope you all enjoy reading it as much as I do writing it...

As always, until next week...

Many Hundos.